Why The Call-Buying Craze Matters

In early February – when I was still teaching in person, rather than remotely – I was approached after class by a student who asked me about trading e-mini futures. At the time, he expressed that while trading call options had been very good to him, he wanted even more upside.
— Read on www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-call-buying-craze-matters-peter-atwater/

Thoughtful perspective on where markets are today.

The Other Florida… | AdventuresInCapitalism | Small Companies–Big Upside

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— Read on adventuresincapitalism.com/2020/06/01/the-other-florida/

Pretty dark view of where the world is going but Adventures in Capitalism is always one of my favorite reads. The different potential investment themes are interesting to think about but I have a more optimistic view of the world. These things go in cycles and eventual enough rioting and extreme politics drives people to appreciate moderation and stability. Things cycle and when things get out of balance the system brings them back into balance. Although I do admit the extreme money printing makes me concerned and wonder about buying power of the dollar (although I’m not so concerned about China displacing is as the reserve currency because they have very serious debt problems themselves).

I do really like the suggestion at the end, though for different reason, that people to pack up and go explore our great country. I’ve also seen much of Southeast Asia, some Africa, and some South America before but am always amazing at how expansive and rich our country is with things to do and see. As I write this I am on my most ambitious family road trip with my wife and five children. We have gone from Pensacola to Bryson City, NC and are now in Washington DC (although this stop hasn’t been the greatest with curfews and craziness..). There is so much to see and if we can make it work we’ll make a loop around the whole country exploring our countries great history, ambition, and innovation along the way.

Next planned stops (until work gets too busy or my wife and start to loose our sanity with the kids!):

Cape Cod, MA

Portland, ME

Ithaca/Niagara, NY

Dearborn, MI

UP, MI

Minnesota, MN

Bismarck, ND

Butte, MT

Seattle, WA

Portland, OR (the other Portland)

Redmond, CA

San Francisco, CA

Las Vegas, NV (Hoover Dam)

Borne, TX

and home home again!

Why the Economy Is Headed for a Post-Coronavirus Depression

Nouriel Roubini
— Read on nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/05/why-the-economy-is-headed-for-a-post-coronavirus-depression-nouriel-roubini.html

An ultra-bearish view from Nouriel Roubini. I hope he isn’t right but he makes a lot of good points. I believe that when capital gains enough power we will see revolt through the political system to unwind some of that power…something he talks around here but doesn’t directly comment on.

“…It turns when all looks black…but a shade less black than the day before…”

This is a timely re-read from Jeremy Grantham at GMO (courtesy of the March 20, 2020 Evergreen Gavekal newsletter).

My favorite line is the very last one – “Finally, be aware that the market does not turn when it sees light at the end of the tunnel. It turns when all looks black, but just a subtle shade less black than the day before.”

So true. And impossible to time exactly so you have to have a plan to steadily enter the market knowing you will always be somewhat too early or too late.

JG_Reinvesting When Terrified_3-09